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ETS IMPASSE
IS EUROPE FACING
A REAL EMISSION
IMPOSSIBLE?
ENVIRONMENT P32
SUPERJET CRASH
Probe uncovers catalogue
of mistakes by crew and
others that led to fatal
accident in Indonesia
GULF-DREAM
US airframer releases
new patent drawings of
Whisper supersonic
business jet concept
10
19
FLIGHT
INTERNATIONAL
flightglobal.com
8-14 JANUARY 2013
2013 FORECASTS
WHAT’S ON
APPROACH?
Our 17 predictions for a year in aerospace
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INNOVATION
COMPOSITES
BENEFITS
REDUCED FUEL
CONSUMPTION
GREATER FATIGUE
RESISTANCE
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drive great aircraft design.
It’s not an accident that the
best designs also are the
most environmentally friendly.”
— Burt Rutan
FOUNDER / CHAIRMAN EMERITUS,
SCALED COMPOSITES
Photo courtesy of Mark Greenberg Photography © 2004
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 FLIGHT
INTERNATIONAL
VOLUME 183
NUMBER 5372
8-14 JANUARY 2013
ETS IMPASSE
IS EUROPE FACING
A REAL EMISSION
IMPOSSIBLE?
ENVIRONMENT P32
SUPERJET CRASH
Probe uncovers catalogue
of mistakes by crew and
others that led to fatal
accident in Indonesia
10
GULF-DREAM
US airframer releases
new patent drawings of
Whisper supersonic
business jet concept
19
PIC OF THE WEEK
YOUR PHOTOGRAPH HERE
AirSpace user Lloyd H posted this shot of a
UK Royal Air Force Panavia Tornado GR4.
The fighter bears a “Shiny Two” livery
marking the centenary of 2 Sqn, which is
based at RAF Marham in Norfolk. Open a
gallery in flightglobal.com’s AirSpace
community for a chance to feature here
FLIGHT
INTERNATIONAL
8-14 JANUARY 2013
2013 FORECASTS
WHAT’S ON
APPROACH?
Our 17 predictions for a year in aerospace
£3.20
£3.30
COVER IMAGE
This shot of Long Beach
airport’s control tower was
shared by John Murphy;
visit flickr.com/kingair42
to view his gallery. In our
2013 forecasts feature, we
take a look at what is on
the horizon for aerospace.
See Cover Story
P22
SpaceX makes giant leap with Grasshopper launch
P8
.
Authorities order immediate action by Tu-204 operators
following Red Wings fatal overrun
P7
flightglobal.com/imageoftheday
NEWS
COVER STORY
22
FORECASTS
The big questions
GENERAL AVIATION
17
Australia looks for tankers to tackle next
year’s res.
G20 summit prompts pitch for Brisbane
helipads
What
news can you expect to read in our pages
over the coming year? Our in-house
experts were bold or foolish enough
to play Nostradamus for a predictions
package spanning air transport, defence,
business aviation and spaceight
THIS WEEK
6
Beijing conrms Y-20 development
7
One last chance to reach defence cut
compromise.
Airbus hits A380 delivery target
BUSINESS AVIATION
18
Middle Eastern luxury role mooted for SIA
A340-500s.
Lineage 1000 on the radar for Russia’s
rich elite
8
Al Baker seeks damages for Doha
airport hold-ups
FEATURES
32
9
Global airliner accident rate reaches
historic low in 2012.
Airbus Military considers variants as
C295 ies with winglet modication
ENVIRONMENT
Europe has put its emissions trading
system on hold for a year, pressuring the
industry to agree a global alternative to
the scheme. Will it happen? We explore
Stop the clocks
19
Gulfstream rejigs supersonic business
jet design.
Bell appeals to FAA over weight exception
for 429
AIR TRANSPORT
10
Silenced warnings doomed Superjet
12
United delays 787 expansion to calm
reliability concerns.
Crew deployed 777F’s reversers before
go-around
13
ATR keen to satisfy 90-seat audience.
Landing 747 clipped van’s roof after
tower lost track
BUSINESS
20
EU member states move to ease the
crowding skies
REGULARS
5 Comment
38 Straight & Level
37 Letters
40 Classified
43 Jobs
47 Working Week
44
JOB OF THE WEEK
DEFENCE
14
Alenia eyes position in FCAS alliance.
New Delhi signs $3 billion deals for
ghters and transport helicopters
15
Euroghter lifted by Oman contract
16
NEXT WEEK
SAFETY REVIEW
There were some high-prole tragedies,
but overall 2012 was an exceptionally
good year in airline safety. Was it a uke?
We subject the gures to expert analysis
Belgian NH90 operations to take off,
after rst delivery
Nagacorp, general
manager, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
ightglobal.com
8-14 January 2013
|
Flight International
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3
CONTENTS
IN THIS ISSUE
Companies listed
AgustaWestland ...........................................19
Air Bagan....................................................... 6
Airbus ......................................6, 7, 17, 18, 21
Airbus Military...................................... 6, 9, 21
Air Methods ................................................... 6
Alenia Aermacchi .........................................14
Ametek ........................................................21
AMR ............................................................21
Antonov ................................................... 6, 16
Arabasco .....................................................18
Atlas Táxi Aéreo ............................................17
ATR ..............................................................13
Aviastar .......................................................12
Avio ............................................................... 9
BAE Systems .........................................14, 15
Bell Helicopter ......................................... 6, 19
Boeing .........................6, 7, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21
Bombardier .......................................6, 11, 13
Boutsen Aviation ..........................................21
British Airways .......................................... 7, 20
CAE .............................................................14
CHC Helicopter ............................................19
China Cargo Airlines .....................................12
Dassault ................................................14, 21
Diamond Aircraft ..........................................17
Elbit Systems .........................................14, 16
Embraer .................................................11, 18
Emirates ........................................................ 7
Eurocopter .............................................16, 19
Euroghter ...................................................15
ExecuJet ......................................................18
Firey ..........................................................13
Fokker............................................................ 6
General Electric ............................................. 9
Gulfstream ............................................... 6, 19
Hindustan Aeronautics .................................14
Honeywell ...................................................... 6
Ilyushin .......................................................... 6
Indonesian Aerospace .................................11
Irkut .............................................................12
Jet Aviation ..................................................18
Korea Aerospace Industries..........................21
Korean Air ....................................................21
Lao Central Airlines ......................................11
Lockheed Martin ...................................... 7, 16
Lufthansa ...................................................... 8
NasJet .........................................................18
NH Industries ...............................................16
Northrop Grumman......................................15
Piaggio Aero................................................... 6
Pratt & Whitney .............................................. 9
Qatar Airways ........................................... 8, 12
Raytheon .....................................................15
Red Wings ..................................................... 7
Rolls-Royce .................................................... 6
Russian Helicopters ...............................14, 17
Saab ............................................................. 6
Saudia Private Aviation ................................18
Selex Galileo................................................14
Sikorsky ......................................................... 7
Singapore Airlines ........................................18
Sky Aviation .................................................11
SpaceX .......................................................... 8
Sukhoi .............................................10, 11, 14
Sundance Helicopters.................................... 6
Tekhnologia .................................................12
Thales ..........................................................21
Tupolev ................................................ 6, 7, 15
United Aircraft ..............................................11
United Airlines .............................................12
United Technologies .....................................21
VT Aerospace ...............................................21
Wings Air .....................................................13
Xian ............................................................... 6
Yakutia .........................................................11
BEHIND THE
HEADLINES
THE WEEK ON THE WEB
flightglobal.com
Will the
A350
y in 2013? Will a
business jet
nally go
super-
Our
blog carried a shot of a Supermarine
Spitre captured by Keith Campbell at
Image of the Day
sonic
feel the
budget axe? And will
? Will the
F-35
– that
same happy hunting ground in which the photographer, whose
AirSpace
RAF Waddington
Virgin
Galactic
take tourists into
space? As is traditional in the
season of
handle is sunshine
band, snared the image that
was
and long
nights,
Flight International
’s resi-
dent experts have been gazing
into a
dark days
in our latest
annual cover competition. The
moodily lit
victorious
to bring you
answers – or brave attempts at
answers – to all the big ques-
tions on the year’s
crystal ball
Second World
-era ghter (
left
) is part of
the Royal Air Force’s Battle of
Britain Memorial Flight aerial display group. On
War
aerospace
Asian Skies
,
agenda
. These were gathered
together in our annual forecasts
package (
P22
) by
Greg Waldron was plunged into melancholy by the sight of
Kingsher’s rst-class lounge at
’s Indira Gandhi
International Airport. “Though the carrier seems
New Delhi
Dan Thisdell
,
about resuming service at some point, its abandoned lounge
presents a
adamant
whose video presentations on
our “
” can be viewed at
ightglobal.com/forecasts2013
findings
, run-down prospect,” he wrote. And, in
reference to a sign for “Kingshe rst oung” (
sic
), he added: “I
swear I didn’t steal the missing letters for
gloomy
souvenirs
.”
Find all these items at
flightglobal.com/wotw
QUESTION OF THE WEEK
In our festive edition, we said:
Richard Branson is willing to bet
£1m that the Virgin Atlantic brand will still be around in five years.
You said:
Dead cert
Roughly 50:50
23
He’d better dust off
his chequebook
45
32
%
%
%
For a full list of reader services, editorial
and advertising contacts see P39
EDITORIAL
+44 20 8652 3842
ight.international@ightglobal.com
DISPLAY ADVERTISING
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gillian.cumming@rbi.co.uk
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ight.classied@ightglobal.com
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WEBMASTER
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SUBSCRIPTIONS
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ightinternational.subs@qss-uk.com
REPRINTS
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FLIGHT DAILY NEWS
+44 20 8652 3096
ightdailynews@ightglobal.com
Total votes: 2,014
This week, we ask for your thoughts on
China’s ambitions to
design latest-generation military aircraft:
R
Matter of time –
formidable player by 2020s
R
Will still rely on reverse
engineering
R
It’s all window dressing
Vote at
flightglobal.com/poll
HIGH FLIERS
The top five stories for the week just gone:
1
Chinese Y-20 revealed in new online pictures
2
Lufthansa cancels order for 747-8I test aircraft
3
Allegiant cancels A319 deal with Cebu Pacic
4
US Navy moves to purchase up to 72 Boeing P-8s
5
Pilots killed as Red Wings Tu-204 crashes on Moscow highway
Flightglobal reaches up to 1.3 million visitors from 220
countries viewing 7.1 million pages each month
Download the Military Simulator
Census online now.
www.flightglobal.com/milisim
High-fidelity maritime patrol aircraft simulators and training systems.
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Flight International
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8-14 January 2013
ightglobal.com
 COMMENT
Pain now or pain later
Eleventh-hour machinations secured a compromise on US tax policy but only delayed a D-Day
for defence spending. And when it comes, activation of the sequester could deliver a disaster
W
ere there any doubts, the timid and short-sighted
compromise deal that averted the “fiscal cliff” on
1 January proved that the legislative machinery of
Washington DC will remain broken for some time, with
potentially disastrous consequences for US aerospace.
The deal achieved some clarity over near-term tax
policy, but only delayed a day of reckoning for defence
spending from the effects of a plainly ill-conceived
budget-cutting drill known as “sequestration”.
Moreover, achieving consensus on a sensible ap-
proach to reducing US defence spending intelligently
is not likely to become easier during the interim.
On New Year’s Eve, a now permanently gridlocked
US legislature postponed the sequestration trigger by
two months in order to resolve a raging and previously
intractable dispute over tax policy.
But in two months’ time, there could be an even
more passionate disagreement over raising the federal
debt ceiling, set to reach crisis point around that time.
First, the good news...
spending by a decentralised appropriations process. In
that context, sequestration was supposed to activate
automatic budget cuts if approved spending levels ex-
ceeded a predetermined cap, but, in practice, legisla-
tors simply suspended the rule rather than face the
consequences of their own lack of discipline.
Sequestration was revived in August 2011 when
Congress almost defaulted on federal debt rather than
agree to make concessions on spending cuts with the
Obama administration. The Budget Control Act of 2011
required a select committee of lawmakers to agree at
least $1.2 trillion in cuts by November 2011, but the
group failed. That activated the provision requiring the
Treasury to begin sequestering authorised funds to fed-
eral agencies totalling $1.2 trillion over 10 years.
The US military should be expected to review spend-
ing levels nearly four years after completing one war in
Iraq and winding down another in Afghanistan. But the
arbitrary, across-the-board reductions imposed by se-
questration are not the way to do it.
O
Budget planners will not know
the extent of needed cuts until
midway through the fiscal year
That might leave the military’s budget planners in a
scenario perhaps even worse than if the budget seques-
ter had already been activated, and not knowing until
mid-way through the fiscal year whether or not be-
tween 9.4 to 11.4% of the defence budget must some-
how be wiped from the ledger by year-end.
It was never supposed to be like this. As a budget-
cutting device, the concept of sequestration was invent-
ed by Congress in the mid-1980s to curtail deficit
See This Week P7
How 2012 was a freak year for safety
A
ccording to Flightglobal’s Ascend consultancy,
2012 was an anomalous year for world airline safe-
ty. It was so good compared with all previous years that
it is unlikely to be equalled for some time, let alone
beaten, Ascend predicts.
That does not mean airline safety performance will
inevitably get worse. Indeed, it will probably continue,
albeit gradually, to get better, but only according to a
five-year – or even decade – moving average.
The logic behind this reasoning is simple. The fig-
ures, derived according to commonly accepted criteria
for airline fatal accident rates, imply that 2012 was al-
most twice as safe as 2011, the respective rates being
one fatal accident every 2.3 million flights compared
with one every 1.4 million. Since, over that two-year
period, the industry did not implement any safety
measures that could account for such a dramatic im-
provement, the conclusion is that the 2012 figures are a
fluke, and the 2013 figures, when we review them in a
year’s time, are likely to look like a step backward.
As in recent years, 2012 accidents were almost all
precipitated by pilot misjudgements or mismanage-
ment. Pilots are the system’s goalkeeper, but the system
keeps banging own-goals past them. The solution can
only be a fundamental review of the knowledge and
skills needed by the modern airline pilot – but, trou-
blingly, no such review is happening.
O
For commentary on the latest
developments in US defence
aviation programmes, consult
our blog The Dew Line at
flightglobal.com/dewline
See This Week P9
ightglobal.com
8-14 January 2013
|
Flight International
|
5
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